It seems like the nice thing about working in an incubator (I haven’t) is that you can put equal focus on team, process, and ideas rather than a single (riskier) idea. This presumes you have access to funding (or the ability to do customer work) regardless of idea, but seems more likely to guarantee sustained happiness if not instant success. See also thinking small.
“To me the chain of dependencies here and opportunity for failure at each step is just too great. That’s not to say that people can’t be successful using this model. It’s just that I personally don’t know how to traverse all those failure points with any great degree of certainty.”